Theory of change
Map your program as a horizontal results pathway — from the problem, through implementation, to the long-term impact. Add as many entries as your program needs at each stage, and link each one to the higher-level result it contributes to.
Problem
The development challenge you intend to address.
No problem statement yet.
Inputs
Resources invested — funds, staff, facilities, expertise, partnerships.
No input yet.
Activities
What is done — the actions undertaken to produce the outputs.
No activity yet.
Outputs
What is produced — tangible products and services delivered.
No output yet.
Outcomes
Short- and mid-term changes: knowledge, skills, behaviour, practice, policy.
No outcome yet.
Impact
The long-term societal benefit the program seeks to achieve.
No impact statement yet.
Reading the pathway
Read the chain left-to-right as an if–then–because argument: If we mobilize these inputs and deliver these outputs, then the intended outcomes occur, because the listed assumptions hold. Several outputs may support one outcome, several outcomes may converge on the impact, and each activity may draw on multiple inputs — use the “contributes to” link on each card to make those relationships explicit.
Practitioner tips
- 1
Start with the end in mind. Draft the impact first, then work backwards through outcomes, outputs and inputs.
- 2
Make assumptions explicit. Most program failures trace back to unstated assumptions. Capture them under every stage.
Sources for all guidance are listed on the References page.