Worked example

Climate-Resilient Smallholder Agriculture Program (CRSAP)

A complete, end-to-end sample combining the theory of change, results framework, M&E plan and an illustrative dashboard. Use it as a reference while building your own program in the modules. Country: Northern Region, sample country · Duration: 2025–2028.

1 · Theory of change

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Stage 1

Problem

Smallholder farmers in the northern region face declining yields and incomes due to erratic rainfall, soil degradation, weak extension services and limited access to climate-smart inputs. Women farmers are disproportionately affected because they have less access to land, credit and information.

Stage 2

Inputs

USD 6.4M budget; 18 field staff; partnerships with 4 cooperatives, the District Agriculture Office and 2 research institutes; demonstration plots; digital advisory platform; training curriculum.

Stage 3

Activities

1) Train 6,000 farmers in climate-smart agriculture (CSA). 2) Establish 120 demonstration plots. 3) Roll out SMS-based weather & advisory service. 4) Facilitate Village Savings & Loan Associations (VSLAs). 5) Strengthen 12 farmer cooperatives. 6) Coach 60 lead farmers as community trainers.

Stage 4

Outputs

• 6,000 farmers (≥50% women) trained in ≥3 CSA practices • 120 functional demonstration plots • 80,000 weather/advisory SMS delivered per season • 60 VSLAs operational with active savings • 12 cooperatives with strengthened governance

Stage 5

Outcomes

Short-term: Increased knowledge of CSA among trained farmers. Medium-term: ≥60% of trained farmers consistently adopt ≥3 CSA practices; women's participation in cooperative leadership rises from 15% to 40%; cooperatives offer aggregated marketing services.

Stage 6

Impact

By 2028, smallholder households in target districts experience higher and more stable agricultural incomes, improved food security and reduced vulnerability to climate shocks — with equitable benefits for women-headed households.

Key assumptions

• Rainfall variability remains within manageable range (no catastrophic drought) • Government extension policy continues to support farmer-to-farmer models • Input markets remain functional and affordable • Mobile network coverage holds in target districts • No major political or security disruption in the region

2 · Results framework

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Goal

By 2028, smallholder households in target districts experience higher, more stable agricultural incomes and reduced vulnerability to climate shocks.

Indicator	Baseline	Target	Unit
Average annual household agricultural income	USD 850	USD 1,400	USD
Household food insecurity (HFIAS) score	12.4	≤ 6.0	score

Outcome

Outcome 1: Increased adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices by smallholder farmers.

Indicator	Baseline	Target	Unit
% trained farmers consistently using ≥3 CSA practices	12%	60%	%
Average crop yield (maize) per hectare	1.2 t/ha	2.1 t/ha	t/ha

Outcome

Outcome 2: Women smallholders have stronger voice in cooperative decision-making and access to services.

Indicator	Baseline	Target	Unit
% leadership positions in cooperatives held by women	15%	40%	%
% women members accessing input credit through cooperative	8%	35%	%

Output

Output 1.1: Farmers trained in climate-smart agricultural practices.

Indicator	Baseline	Target	Unit
# farmers completing CSA training (disaggregated by sex)	0	6,000 (≥3,000 women)	people
% trainees scoring ≥80% on post-training knowledge test	n/a	75%	%

Output

Output 1.2: Weather and agronomic advisory service delivered to farmers.

Indicator	Baseline	Target	Unit
# advisory SMS delivered per cropping season	0	80,000	messages
% subscribers reporting messages were useful for decisions	n/a	70%	%

Output

Output 2.1: Cooperatives strengthened in governance, finance and inclusive leadership.

Indicator	Baseline	Target	Unit
# cooperatives meeting governance benchmark (annual audit)	2	12	coops
# VSLAs operational with active savings cycle	0	60	VSLAs

3 · Monitoring & Evaluation Plan

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Indicator	Source	Method	Frequency	Responsible	Use of data
Average annual household agricultural income	Baseline & endline household survey	Household survey	Bi-annual	M&E Manager	Impact reporting; donor reporting; program redesign
% trained farmers using ≥3 CSA practices	Annual outcome survey + farm visit checklist	Household survey	Annual	M&E Officer	Annual outcome report; adaptive management of training curriculum
Average maize yield per hectare	Crop-cut measurement on sampled plots	Direct observation	Annual	Agronomy Lead	Validate self-reported adoption; refine demo plot design
% women leadership positions in cooperatives	Cooperative governance records	Admin records	Annual	Gender & Inclusion Officer	Track gender equity outcomes; trigger leadership coaching
# farmers completing CSA training	Training attendance database	Admin records	Quarterly	Training Coordinator	Quarterly progress reporting; reach analysis
% trainees scoring ≥80% on knowledge test	Pre/post knowledge assessments	Admin records	Quarterly	Training Coordinator	Trainer performance review; curriculum refinement
% SMS subscribers finding messages useful	Periodic SMS feedback poll + KIIs	KII	Bi-annual	Digital Advisory Lead	Improve message content & timing
# cooperatives meeting governance benchmark	Annual external governance audit	Secondary data	Annual	Cooperative Strengthening Lead	Targeting of capacity-building support
# VSLAs operational with active savings	VSLA monthly reports	Admin records	Monthly	Field Officers	Operational dashboard; early warning on dormant groups
Beneficiary satisfaction & unintended effects	FGDs with women, men and youth groups	FGD	Bi-annual	M&E Manager	Do-no-harm review; safeguarding response

4 · Sample Dashboard

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Output progress vs target

Cumulative % delivery by quarter

Beneficiary reach trend

Monthly individuals served

Outcome shift: baseline vs endline

KAP & livelihoods composite (0–100)

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